The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, citing improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private-sector investment.
The revised projection was contained in the bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update. Nigeria was among several Sub-Saharan African countries whose growth outlook was upgraded, alongside Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia.
For Nigeria, the World Bank expects economic growth to increase from an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026. It projects further growth of 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028. The bank attributed the improved outlook to economic reforms, better macroeconomic management, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.
The forecast follows stronger-than-expected economic activity in the second quarter of 2026. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year during the period, compared with 3.89 per cent in the first quarter.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank raised its 2026 growth projection to 4.3 per cent from 4.1 per cent in its April forecast. The lender said growth forecasts had been upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries in the region, reflecting improved resilience and the impact of economic reforms.
However, the World Bank cautioned that stronger headline growth has not yet translated sufficiently into poverty reduction and job creation. It projected per-capita income growth at only 1.8 per cent in 2026 and warned about risks from geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, high interest rates and elevated debt-servicing costs.
The report also highlighted artificial intelligence as an opportunity for African economies to improve productivity, create jobs and support sectors such as agriculture, education and small businesses.
For Nigeria, the upgraded forecast provides a more positive economic outlook but also underscores the need to convert growth into improved living standards, employment and broader economic opportunities. With the 2027 elections approaching, the sustainability and social impact of Nigeria’s economic reforms are likely to remain important areas of public debate.
